After the Sustainability Recession: It’s time to expand our focus from responsible business to regenerative markets

John Elkington • December 19, 2024

John Elkington, Founder of Volans and an ISSP Sustainability Hall of Fame Honoree, is widely recognized as one of the founders of the global sustainability movement. In this piece, he signals that if sustainability is to deliver, our understanding of what it is likely to involve must also expand. No longer simply about transforming businesses, sustainability must be about transforming markets. His most recent book — Tickling Sharks: How We Sold Business on Sustainability — was published in June 2024 by Fast Company Press. 


I began mapping the ups and downs in the sustainability agenda thirty years ago. There have been a series of upwaves since, with ever-taller peaks truncated by sustainability recessions — though the intervals between the peaks are shrinking.


This time around, the ESG agenda was hit soonest and hardest, but the wider sustainability agenda will be under pressure through the second Trump administration. Weirdly, though, I feel more optimistic than I have for years — because experience suggests that the critical work is done in downwave, recessionary periods.


So, while sustainability champions — including thousands of newly-minted chief sustainability officers (CSOs) — spotlight the need to move beyond incrementalism to systemic solutions, it is not clear that they yet know what this will involve.


One implication is that truly effective solutions will be structural. This means restructuring not just individual businesses but also reconfiguring the markets they serve.


Take the Ford Motor Company. It split itself into two operating units — one (“Ford Blue”) focuses on the company’s legacy business anchored around the internal combustion engine, while the second (“Ford Model E”) is configured to become a nimbler player in the electric vehicle market. Model E may be struggling, but the increasing urgency of such solutions to fundamentally structural challenges will be increasingly obvious.


Nor is Ford alone. Solvay, a Belgian multinational chemical company, is another pioneer that  has gone structural. While its core business has doubled down on established product lines like soda ash, peroxides, and specialty chemicals, Solvay has spun out a new venture, Syensqo, to focus on a range of “breakthrough” opportunities in such areas as renewable materials and green hydrogen.


The interesting thing here is that the new venture already boasts revenues well ahead of the legacy business. At this stage, such examples reflect corporate restructurings in response to emerging market trends. Yet they also raise the question of how soon tomorrow’s business success stories will be based on conscious market restructurings, driven as much by policymakers (as in the case of the EU’s Green Deal and the US Inflation Reduction Act) as by incumbent corporates and insurgent entrepreneurs.

 


Markets Wobble As Politicization Grows


The more exposed a company is to financial markets, the less independence of thought it is often allowed when it comes to sustainability-directed transformations. Where people might once have blamed the gods for their mishaps, today’s business leaders blame market realities (specifically macroeconomic, political, and financial factors) for their failures to deliver on publicly announced commitments in the sustainability space.


Think of Shell CEO Wael Sawan, with his announcement of a lower ambition for his energy company’s climate targets; of Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Kalenius throttling back on his company’s target of 100 percent electric vehicles by 2030; and of Unilever CEO Hein Schumacher declaring that the FMCG giant’s long-vaunted sustainability goals had failed to deliver sufficient shareholder value — and dialling back on the speed and scale of change in some areas.


The market travails of BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who found himself embroiled in a furious anti-ESG storm, will feature in many future business school case studies. Standing back, it is evident that, even if Fink and BlackRock were correct in their analysis of the longer-term market trajectories, they misjudged the political consequences of the recent boom in market interest in ESG.


Progress always triggers counter-measures from those economically or ideologically trapped in the old paradigm. So, as the transition builds, expect growing tensions — alongside climbing casualty rates, both for leaders and businesses. Once again, whether or not they care to embrace it, there is a critical role for governments in ensuring that most of the actual and potential victims of such transformations are compensated, or reskilled and re-employed.

 


Sustainability is our biggest market failure


If sustainability is to deliver, our understanding of what it is likely to involve must also expand. It is no longer simply about transforming businesses, critical though that may be. Increasingly, too, it must be about transforming markets — to the point where necessary outcomes are secured by new market default settings.


Talk to many CSOs meanwhile, though, and while they are increasingly happy to talk about business models, they may be significantly less comfortable when it comes to discussing wider economic models. For that, it can be more productive to turn to the smaller number of Chief Economists in business. They include some of the most interesting — and provocative — thinkers in today’s private sector.


As Dow Chief Economist Rafael Cayuela told me, “sustainability is our biggest market failure — but solving these challenges is our biggest-ever market opportunity. We are seeing a phase change in key markets, where sustainability shifts from being considered simply as a cost, an additional set of constraints, to an increasingly powerful set of market drivers.”

 


At best, tariffs are short-term remedy


Anyone wanting a better sense of how all this might play out should consider taking a learning journey to China in 2025 — a country that is clearly committed to dominating the commanding heights of tomorrow’s economy.


China’s pro-green-growth mindset may not be driven by sustainability priorities, at least as we understand them, but their undeniable success means that the EU is now having to slap massive tariffs on imported Chinese cars.


Tariffs , of course, will be in the limelight throughout 2025. But there really is a limit to how long you can use such instruments to hold back the future. Expect to see more market initiatives aggregating sustainability-oriented demand at scale. Consider the Climate Group’s RE100 initiative, with over 400 corporate members committed to consuming 100 percent renewable electricity. Collectively they consume more power than France — and are closing the gap with Germany.


Finally, while it’s understandable why Jeff Bezos might want to keep his Washington Post empire above the electoral fray, it’s time for business leaders to align their wider market ecosystems with their declared commitments.


One angle Volans is pursuing involves encouraging companies to review their memberships of industry federations — to test the alignment of the federations’ relevant lobbying activities against a given company’s commitments. Our recent study with InfluenceMap for Unilever is a case in point. We found that around a quarter of the federations and associations with which Unilever is currently affiliated are lobbying in contrary directions. The logical question then is what such companies should do next: stay in and fight — or publicly resign, explaining why they have done so?


In headlines, the current sustainability recession is likely to drive our agenda in more market-oriented directions, dictating increasingly structural responses from corporations, and — as a result — a continuing politicization of issues that by the 2040s will nonetheless be taken for granted.

About the Author:

John Elkington, Founder of Volans and an ISSP Sustainability Hall of Fame Honoree and author of the newly released

Tickling Sharks: How We Sold Business on Sustainability.


PHOTO: China takes on the world: BYD cars on display in Munich, Germany | Matti Blume | BYD booth, IAA Summit 2023 | Munich, Germany

Read perspectives from the ISSP blog

By Nicole Cacal, MSc, October 30, 2025
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AI as Infrastructure Manager: The Self-Optimizing Data Center Here's an irony that doesn't get enough attention: AI might be energy-intensive, but it's also one of our best tools for managing energy systems efficiently. When we only think of AI as a consumer of data center resources, we miss part of the story. AI can also be the conductor of efficiency, orchestrating complex systems in real-time to minimize waste and maximize renewable integration. Consider three optimization domains where AI is already making measurable impact: Cooling systems: Data centers generate enormous heat, and cooling accounts for a massive portion of their energy use. AI can continuously adjust cooling based on workload patterns, outside temperature, humidity, and dozens of other variables, optimizing in ways that static systems simply can't match. Workload scheduling: Not all computing tasks need to happen immediately. 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Measuring What Matters: Beyond Energy to Net Benefit But here's the challenge: if we only measure AI's direct energy consumption, we miss the full picture. We need frameworks that capture both the operational cost and the systemic benefit. This is where life cycle assessment combined with comparative modeling becomes essential. We need to ask: compared to what? And over what timeframe? The sectoral success stories are compelling when you run the numbers: Building automation systems powered by AI are consistently achieving energy savings in the range of 20-30% across diverse building types. One documented case study of a commercial office building in the United States showed a 32% reduction in overall energy consumption with a 2.4-year return on investment (a $2.1 million system investment generating $875,000 in annual savings). In Stockholm, the SISAB school building portfolio achieved similar results with a two-year payback period. In precision agriculture, AI-driven irrigation and fertilizer application systems are cutting water consumption by 20% to as much as 50% and reducing chemical runoff, addressing both resource scarcity and ecosystem health. Waste management optimization is another powerful example. AI-powered sorting systems in recycling facilities dramatically improve material recovery rates while reducing contamination. The resource efficiency gains far exceed the AI system's energy footprint. These aren't marginal improvements. When properly deployed, targeted AI applications produce emissions savings and resource efficiencies that dwarf their own operational costs. That being said, given today's fossil fueled data center expansions, we may find that we have much further to go in making the environmental positives outweigh the negatives. But that's no reason to throw in the towel or to assume that these technologies cannot - over time - deliver more environmental benefits than downsides. It requires companies to demand more of their technology providers and deploy their systems sustainably when greener options become available. But (and this is crucial) these benefits only materialize when we pair the right AI with the right infrastructure and the right deployment strategy. Which brings us to governance. The Path Forward: Governance, Transparency, and Adaptive Thinking The sustainability community, including organizations like ISSP, is actively developing shared frameworks for assessing AI's net impact. These emerging approaches include system-level energy auditing, selective task deployment protocols, and strategies for minimizing "dark data" (the vast amounts of stored data that's never used but still requires energy to maintain). Multi-stakeholder governance initiatives are bringing together technologists, policymakers, environmental scientists, and business leaders to create adaptive standards. This isn't about creating rigid regulations that will be obsolete in two years. It's about establishing principles and processes that evolve with the technology. Those with a technology management background know that the most successful systems are those designed for adaptation. We need governance structures that can respond to new information, course-correct quickly, and remain grounded in measurable outcomes. Transparency is non-negotiable. Organizations deploying AI need to measure and report not just their energy consumption but their net impact. What problems are you solving? What resources are you saving? What would the alternative approach have cost? These aren't easy questions, but they're the right ones. As sustainability professionals, this is our arena. We have the frameworks: life cycle thinking, systems analysis, stakeholder engagement, and metrics development, to name a few. We need to apply these tools to AI with the same rigor we've applied to supply chains, built environments, and industrial processes. So here's my invitation: What are you seeing in your sector? How is your organization approaching the AI sustainability question? Are you finding innovative ways to ensure deployment is appropriate and responsible? Because ultimately, appropriate AI isn't about choosing between progress and sustainability. It's about insisting that progress is sustainable. It's about right-sizing models, optimizing infrastructure, measuring net benefit, and building governance systems worthy of the challenge. The technology itself is neutral. Our choices determine whether AI becomes a driver of sustainability or another extractive burden. Let's choose wisely.
By Sobel Aziz Ngom, CEO, Tostan September 25, 2025
For 35 years, the NGO Tostan has partnered with communities across Africa to define and achieve their own vision of sustainable development based on respect for human rights. In our September ISSP Blog, Tostan CEO Sobel Aziz Ngom shares Tostan's unique approach to enduring community-led development: include all, listen before acting, take time to build trust, and share ownership with humility. Start With Community: The First Mile of Sustainable Development September 2025 Sobel Aziz Ngom CEO, Tostan When I stepped into the role of CEO at Tostan, I did not come in with the illusion that I already understood its unique approach. On the contrary, both our Board and senior leadership advised me to begin slowly, by listening, learning, and asking questions. This guidance resonated with my own experience: that lasting change only happens when communities feel ownership and define priorities in their own voices. For me, these first months have been a journey of re-affirmation and discovery. I have seen how Tostan’s approach builds directly on principles I already believed in: participation, dignity, and youth leadership. It has also opened new insights for me about what genuine engagement really looks like. Most of all, I am struck by how the process is not only about involving people in decisions, but about changing the way people relate to one another: listening more deeply, including those often excluded, communicating more peacefully, and governing more fairly. At Tostan, we believe in the dignity and potential of every community. Change is not imposed; it is nurtured through dialogue, trust, and the mobilization of local knowledge. Our approach is built on a conviction: lasting change cannot be decreed, it must be built together, step by step, in dignity and trust. That wisdom applies equally to leadership transitions and to sustainable development. Step by step toward lasting change Rather than relying on one-off or top-down interventions, our approach supports communities through a progressive journey, moving from trust and dialogue to collective action. It begins by creating an inclusive space where every voice is heard and valued. Within this space, communities identify their strengths, priorities, and core values, laying the foundation for a shared vision of wellbeing. Building on this vision, democratic principles and human rights are explored in ways that resonate with local realities, strengthening the community’s ability to organize and make informed decisions. Step by step, communities move toward planning and implementing concrete actions, mobilizing their own resources while engaging local authorities for support. Along the way, new skills are developed — in literacy, management, health, and advocacy — to sustain progress and help translate the community's shared vision into reality. Each phase reinforces the next, deepening trust, knowledge, and collective capacity, until communities are fully equipped to drive lasting change for their own wellbeing.  From voices to livelihoods: the women of Somone Lagoon One story captures this transformation for me. In Somone, Senegal, women from the lagoon area came together to discuss what mattered most for their community. At first only a few spoke. Over time, with dialogue in their own language and through participatory methods, more women raised their voices, sharing concerns, proposing ideas, and debating solutions. By the end, they not only agreed on practical steps, but also shifted how they interacted: listening actively, respecting differences, and ensuring no voice was left aside. What emerged was more than a plan for the lagoon; it was a new practice of governance grounded in fairness and inclusion. And it was not only social. By organizing collectively, the women strengthened their economic group, improved how they managed resources, and increased the income generated from their activities around the lagoon. This story is a reminder that when relationships change, so do livelihoods. Social inclusion becomes the foundation for economic empowerment. Prepared ground, lasting growth It is often tempting to judge progress by what is visible: a new structure built, a service installed, or an activity launched. But the real difference lies beneath the surface, in the preparation that makes lasting results possible. Think of planting a tree. In dry, unprepared soil, even a strong seed struggles to take root. It may sprout quickly but soon withers when conditions become harsh. In well-prepared and nourished soil, the very same seed grows deep roots, withstands storms, and bears fruit for generations. Communities work in much the same way. When there is no shared vision, no clear rules, and no sense of ownership, progress often stalls at the first obstacle. But when people take time to build trust, establish transparent practices, and develop the skills they need, their initiatives take root and thrive. As I learn about Tostan from the inside, I see the same truth. Preparation through dialogue, clarity, and capacity is what allows both communities and organizations to carry their ambitions forward with confidence. Why starting from strengths changes outcomes Across sectors, communities point to four recurring benefits of this approach: Resilience. With a shared vision and clear roles, people adapt quickly when supply or budget conditions shift. Lower lifetime costs. Early investments in facilitation and governance save money later. Fairness by design. Co-created rules reflect lived realities — girls fetching water, elders with mobility challenges, young entrepreneurs seeking opportunity. Trust as infrastructure. Trust accelerates coordination and makes accountability real. These are lessons for leadership too: trust, fairness, and resilience are as essential inside organizations as they are in village water committees. Avoiding shortcuts (and their costs) Under pressure, it is tempting to cut corners: brief consultations, over-engineered technology, committees without real mandates, or community sessions held in languages people rarely use. These approaches may deliver short-term outputs, but communities often remind us that the hidden cost is confidence. The same temptation exists in leadership transitions: to announce, to prove oneself, to act before listening. But each shortcut risks raising the cost of trust later. Spaces for sharing and mutual learning Practitioners often ask how such community capabilities are built and sustained. At the Tostan Training Center in Senegal, these questions are explored not through formal lectures but through spaces of sharing and mutual learning. In these settings, facilitators and community members sit side by side with practitioners, opening dialogues in local languages and revisiting real experiences from villages that have gone through Tostan's Community Empowerment Program. Instead of theory, people see how conversations unfold, how inclusive decisions are made, and how trust is gradually built. The value lies in what participants carry back: not a prescription, but a set of practices they have witnessed, tested, and adapted to their own contexts. This kind of exchange helps those working with communities to strengthen their partnerships, avoid common pitfalls, and ground their initiatives in methods that last. For me, it is also a reminder that leadership — whether in a village or an organization — grows through shared reflection, humility, and practice, rather than through quick fixes. Closing the loop Sustainability is not only technical or financial. It is civic and relational. It depends on who decides, who acts, and who continues to nurture progress once the external team has left. Like a tree that grows strong only in prepared soil, communities that invest in trust, inclusion, and clear responsibilities create the conditions for lasting change. Progress does not stop at the first difficulty; it deepens and spreads. The same lesson applies inside organizations. What lasts is not only a set of strategies or plans, but the culture we cultivate: listening before acting, building capacity, and sharing ownership with humility. That is why, both in my role as CEO and in our community work, I return to the same conviction: start with listening, prepare the ground carefully, and let trust grow over time. In Tostan partner communities, this is how water pumps keep running, how health improves, how livelihoods expand, and how governance endures. In Tostan as an organization, it is how culture is preserved, innovation emerges, and transitions succeed. Start with community. Lead with humility. Prepare the ground well. That is how you ensure sustainability.
By Todd Cort, MS, PE, PhD July 25, 2025
Todd Cort, MS, PE, PhD, is a Senior Lecturer at Yale School of Management and Yale School of the Environment and serves as Faculty Co-director of both the Yale Center for Business and the Environment and the Yale Initiative on Sustainable Finance. In our July blog, he sheds light on the fundamental importance of financial modeling for sustainability to be a core part of business strategy. Do the Math: Why Financial Modeling Is Essential for Sustainability As global markets begin to internalize the financial impacts of climate change and other environmental and social risks, I’ve seen expectations rise sharply for companies to provide financially robust disclosures. Standards and regulations are evolving, and the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) has made it clear that sustainability disclosures must be useful to investors by linking environmental and social risks to enterprise value over the short, medium, and long term. Similarly, the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) requires us to identify and mitigate adverse environmental and human rights impacts across our company’s value chain—including integrating these risks into our corporate strategy and financial planning. These frameworks don’t just ask us to be aware; they demand that we develop a quantitative understanding of how environmental and social risks affect our financial outlook. Simply put: we can no longer talk about sustainability in broad, qualitative terms. We have to do the math. And yet, despite these evolving expectations, I see little movement in risk disclosures and still see almost all in the corporate world treating sustainability as a reporting task, not a financial modeling challenge. The one possible exception being the calculation of appropriate shadow prices for carbon emissions for oil and gas asset planning by companies like Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips. Although even these can be difficult to reconcile with global energy scenarios. The ISSB and CSDDD reference enterprise value, financial planning, and risk mitigation, but I notice that many corporate responses stop at narrative statements—talking about reputational risk, regulatory uncertainty, or stakeholder pressure. While those qualitative insights provide context, they fall short of supporting sound financial decision-making. As a board member, CFO, or investor, I must move beyond vague statements like "climate change may impact our operations" and instead ask: by how much, under what assumptions, and with what financial consequences? Without this level of rigor, we can’t prioritize investments, adjust capital allocation, or weigh transition risks against emerging opportunities. The data challenge I understand the lack of financial modeling and the prevalence of qualitative risk assessment and mitigation narratives issued by corporations today. The data that underlies and explains environmental and social risks feels like it is not up to the challenge of quantitative financial modeling and making statements of financial risk based on shaky data is a good recipe for inviting litigation. Even for the most well documented risks such as climate adaptation, the data can leave enormous gaps in our ability to forecast financial impact. How frequent and of what duration are the expected climate events? Where in my supply chain am I likely to see the greatest disruption? What components or operations will prove to be most vulnerable and most critical in the face of disruption? How will critical stakeholders such as regulators react and respond in the face of severe events? How strained will our backstops such as insurance coverage become in the face of widespread events? These and other questions are important to calculating severity and likelihood of financial risks, but the available data may leave us with enormous sensitivities and error bars in our analysis. However, I have found in practice that the data challenge is frequently not as daunting as it appears. Many variables turn out to be less important to the model, thereby making the data challenge less relevant. In other cases, we are able to find new data sets that provide meaningful insights to critical variables. Even in those cases where the data are lacking and the question is critical, I find that knowing the range and likelihood of outcomes is more useful than an unsubstantiated narrative. Net present value Looking forward, companies must integrate sustainability risk and opportunity into financial modeling tools typically used in capital budgeting and investment analysis to make better strategic decisions. That means projecting the net present value (NPV) of sustainability-related projects, whether it's decarbonizing operations or installing renewable energy systems. NPV is a fundamental tool for companies to assess whether these projects will create or erode value over time, especially when compared to the cost of inaction—such as paying for carbon emissions or recovering from extreme weather damage. A key part of this is choosing the right discount rate—one that reflects our risk-adjusted cost of capital and the long-term calculations of climate investments. If I choose a rate that’s too high, I risk undervaluing the future benefits of resilience; too low, and I might overstate the returns. Embedding sustainability into financial models Practitioners must also recognize that environmental and social risks directly influence key financial metrics like free cash flow, leverage ratios, and cost of capital. For instance, rising water stress and deforestation policies can drive up input costs and squeeze margins in some circumstances and for some companies. Exposure to carbon pricing can increase earnings volatility, which affects beta and ultimately raises the cost of equity. Lenders and insurers are beginning to price environmental risk into debt and premiums, which means corporate cost of capital is increasingly tied to how well companies manage sustainability. If we want to integrate sustainability into our enterprise valuation and ensure that our initiatives are financially sound—not just aspirational—we have to model these dynamics accurately. Equally importantly, we must be cognizant of which financial metrics are most critical to financial health and whether these are the most sensitive factors to sustainability risks. For example, earlier ventures typically live and die by free cash flow whereas larger companies may be much more sensitive to leveraged ratios. Matching the sustainability risk and opportunity to the appropriate line item can be the difference between critical and meaningless insights. At the end of the day, I see financial modeling as the essential bridge connecting sustainability goals, enterprise valuation, and fiduciary duties. By quantifying the financial implications of our net-zero targets, carbon transition risks, nature-positive investments, labor disruptions, and resource constraints, we can move beyond abstract narratives and deliver forecasts that truly guide action. This shift allows wise capital allocation, sets credible decarbonization paths, and communicates sustainability risks and opportunities in ways that matter to investors. For sustainability to be a core part of business strategy—not just a footnote in a report—we must embed it in our financial models. In today’s world of tightening regulation and growing risk, doing the math isn’t optional. It’s essential.
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