Spotlight Shifts to COP28 As Sustainability Goes Political

John Elkington • November 18, 2022

A global context of heightening political turmoil has surrounded COP27. In view of the current stakes, John Elkington, Chairman & Chief Pollinator at Volans Ventures and ISSP Sustainability Hall of Fame Honoree, urges all of us in sustainability to learn to do politics. And to shift our lens to COP28.


We long dreamed of sustainability becoming part of mainstream politics—often overlooking the inconvenient truth that politics can make mincemeat of even the most urgent and well-founded change agendas. With politics now in turmoil wherever we look, the 2022 UN Climate Change Conference—aka COP27—will find it hard to capture and hold the attention of the global media and political classes.


So, while in no way wishing to undermine the efforts of the COP27 organizers, and this year’s summit coincides with the merging of the sustainability and security (energy, food, water, climate, social, health, etc.) agendas, we also must urgently expand our focus from Sharm el-Sheikh, where Egypt is hosting COP27, to Dubai Expo City where the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is due to host COP28.


The logic is simple. The current disarray in global politics is so great that climate change, yet again, will often be drowned out. That said, Putin’s vicious invasion of Ukraine means that most EU countries are advancing their targets for moving away from hydrocarbons. Several—notably Austria, Denmark, and Portugal—have already committed to having 100% renewable electricity by 2030.


Anti-ESG, pseudoscience and PR

But then there is the less-good news. Who would have predicted a few years back that American states would now be announcing their intention to step away from funds offered by BlackRock—one of the world’s leading asset managers? Louisiana, to take just one benighted example, has said that it plans to pull an extraordinary $794 million out of BlackRock investment funds, blaming the asset management giant's push to embrace environmental, social and governance (ESG) investment strategies. The apparent logic: capitalism should have no truck with sustainability and the fossil fuels sector should be allowed to cripple the planet, wherever profits can be made—and jobs, taxes, and assorted inducements, legal or otherwise, protected.


State Treasurer John Schroder explained, "This divestment is necessary to protect Louisiana from mandates BlackRock has called for that would cripple our critical energy sector." Delusional—and profoundly anti-capitalist—but symbolizing a new phase in the sustainability arms race.


BlackRock, as the firm has counter-argued, remains a major investor in fossil fuels. But its overall direction of travel—as prudence dictates—is away from fossil fuels. Despite the current uptick in demand for fuels of every sort, driven by Putin’s energy war, the evolutionary trajectory is clear. Whatever Putin (and Schroder) may imagine, fossil fuels are headed for the boneyard.


Again, who would have predicted that United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres would say in public that, “We seem trapped in a world where fossil fuel producers and financiers have humanity by the throat. For decades, the fossil fuel industry has invested heavily in pseudoscience and public relations—with a false narrative to minimise their responsibility for climate change and undermine ambitious climate policies.”


Sustainability is going seriously political

For decades, the change agenda was sufficiently remote from the core political debate that it was generally handled by lower grade officials and, in business, by specialist managers, many of them public relations specialists or lawyers. No longer. What is remarkable now is that sustainability is crashing into mainstream politics and mainstream markets. One of the results is that the change agenda is becoming increasingly politicised.


Witness the U.S. Republican Party’s push-back against the climate elements of the recently legislated Inflation Reduction Act. And we have seen it in my own country, the UK, where a chaotic Conservative Prime Minister took a wrecking ball to the country’s environmental rules and reputation for good governance.


She also took the idiotic step of banning the country’s new king, Charles III, from attending COP27. Ridiculous because he has a considerable standing in the world of climate action and could have represented the country’s better sides. One popular newspaper ran a live camera focused on a lettuce, to see whether the vegetable of the Prime Minister expires first. She lost to Rishi Sunak.


Similar trends are now seen in countries like Italy and Sweden, with right-wing populists winning support—and almost never supporting any meaningful elements of the sustainability agenda. You see it in Brazil, too, where I spoke recently at a major business forum hosted by the forestry, pulp, paper, and packaging company Klabin. In the background, the news media were full of increasingly angry exchanges between supporters of the presidential campaigns of Jair Bolsonaro, who had been president since 2019, and former president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, better known as “Lula.”


The world sensed that this was a truly consequential election, with massive ecological implications for Amazonia—and hence the rest of the world. Those voting against Bolsonaro—and many people in the wider world—knew that he has been incompetent, corrupt, and an aggressive champion of the intensifying destruction of the Amazon ecosystem.


They also suspected that a Lula government would be unlikely to address the country’s current unsustainability with anything like the urgency needed, but many concluded that it could hardly be worse than what has been happening recently. In the event, Lula won by a thin margin, but Bolsonaro supporters retained control of the country’s Congress, suggesting major battles ahead.


An inflection point

The key message from all of this is that we must learn to do the politics. And that is why we are now developing a new Volans program focusing on Corporate Advocacy, looking at how companies and business leaders can play a legitimate and effective role in driving the new politics. Early partners include Unilever and the Porticus Foundation.


Ahead of COP28, we are also partnering with the UAE Government and the First Abu Dhabi Bank on a global commission on access to clean fuels. One question that will need to be asked there is how a fossil-fuels-based economy like theirs can adapt to a future world where selling coal, oil, and then gas will be viewed in the same light as selling hard, addictive drugs?


The sustainability paradigm has been building for over 60 years. Given that revolutionary new paradigms take 70-80 years to engage fully, I sense that we are at an inflection point—and that the next 10-15 years will be decisive, whether the outcomes are good, bad or ugly.


PHOTO: Neil Palmer | Wikipedia


About the Author:

John Elkington
Chairman & Chief Pollinator
Volans Ventures
ISSP Sustainability Hall of Fame Honoree

Read perspectives from the ISSP blog

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By Sobel Aziz Ngom, CEO, Tostan September 25, 2025
For 35 years, the NGO Tostan has partnered with communities across Africa to define and achieve their own vision of sustainable development based on respect for human rights. In our September ISSP Blog, Tostan CEO Sobel Aziz Ngom shares Tostan's unique approach to enduring community-led development: include all, listen before acting, take time to build trust, and share ownership with humility. Start With Community: The First Mile of Sustainable Development September 2025 Sobel Aziz Ngom CEO, Tostan When I stepped into the role of CEO at Tostan, I did not come in with the illusion that I already understood its unique approach. On the contrary, both our Board and senior leadership advised me to begin slowly, by listening, learning, and asking questions. This guidance resonated with my own experience: that lasting change only happens when communities feel ownership and define priorities in their own voices. For me, these first months have been a journey of re-affirmation and discovery. 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Step by step toward lasting change Rather than relying on one-off or top-down interventions, our approach supports communities through a progressive journey, moving from trust and dialogue to collective action. It begins by creating an inclusive space where every voice is heard and valued. Within this space, communities identify their strengths, priorities, and core values, laying the foundation for a shared vision of wellbeing. Building on this vision, democratic principles and human rights are explored in ways that resonate with local realities, strengthening the community’s ability to organize and make informed decisions. Step by step, communities move toward planning and implementing concrete actions, mobilizing their own resources while engaging local authorities for support. Along the way, new skills are developed — in literacy, management, health, and advocacy — to sustain progress and help translate the community's shared vision into reality. 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By organizing collectively, the women strengthened their economic group, improved how they managed resources, and increased the income generated from their activities around the lagoon. This story is a reminder that when relationships change, so do livelihoods. Social inclusion becomes the foundation for economic empowerment. Prepared ground, lasting growth It is often tempting to judge progress by what is visible: a new structure built, a service installed, or an activity launched. But the real difference lies beneath the surface, in the preparation that makes lasting results possible. Think of planting a tree. In dry, unprepared soil, even a strong seed struggles to take root. It may sprout quickly but soon withers when conditions become harsh. In well-prepared and nourished soil, the very same seed grows deep roots, withstands storms, and bears fruit for generations. Communities work in much the same way. 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In these settings, facilitators and community members sit side by side with practitioners, opening dialogues in local languages and revisiting real experiences from villages that have gone through Tostan's Community Empowerment Program. Instead of theory, people see how conversations unfold, how inclusive decisions are made, and how trust is gradually built. The value lies in what participants carry back: not a prescription, but a set of practices they have witnessed, tested, and adapted to their own contexts. This kind of exchange helps those working with communities to strengthen their partnerships, avoid common pitfalls, and ground their initiatives in methods that last. For me, it is also a reminder that leadership — whether in a village or an organization — grows through shared reflection, humility, and practice, rather than through quick fixes. Closing the loop Sustainability is not only technical or financial. It is civic and relational. 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By Todd Cort, MS, PE, PhD July 25, 2025
Todd Cort, MS, PE, PhD, is a Senior Lecturer at Yale School of Management and Yale School of the Environment and serves as Faculty Co-director of both the Yale Center for Business and the Environment and the Yale Initiative on Sustainable Finance. In our July blog, he sheds light on the fundamental importance of financial modeling for sustainability to be a core part of business strategy. Do the Math: Why Financial Modeling Is Essential for Sustainability As global markets begin to internalize the financial impacts of climate change and other environmental and social risks, I’ve seen expectations rise sharply for companies to provide financially robust disclosures. Standards and regulations are evolving, and the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB) has made it clear that sustainability disclosures must be useful to investors by linking environmental and social risks to enterprise value over the short, medium, and long term. Similarly, the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) requires us to identify and mitigate adverse environmental and human rights impacts across our company’s value chain—including integrating these risks into our corporate strategy and financial planning. These frameworks don’t just ask us to be aware; they demand that we develop a quantitative understanding of how environmental and social risks affect our financial outlook. Simply put: we can no longer talk about sustainability in broad, qualitative terms. We have to do the math. And yet, despite these evolving expectations, I see little movement in risk disclosures and still see almost all in the corporate world treating sustainability as a reporting task, not a financial modeling challenge. The one possible exception being the calculation of appropriate shadow prices for carbon emissions for oil and gas asset planning by companies like Occidental Petroleum and ConocoPhillips. Although even these can be difficult to reconcile with global energy scenarios. The ISSB and CSDDD reference enterprise value, financial planning, and risk mitigation, but I notice that many corporate responses stop at narrative statements—talking about reputational risk, regulatory uncertainty, or stakeholder pressure. While those qualitative insights provide context, they fall short of supporting sound financial decision-making. As a board member, CFO, or investor, I must move beyond vague statements like "climate change may impact our operations" and instead ask: by how much, under what assumptions, and with what financial consequences? Without this level of rigor, we can’t prioritize investments, adjust capital allocation, or weigh transition risks against emerging opportunities. The data challenge I understand the lack of financial modeling and the prevalence of qualitative risk assessment and mitigation narratives issued by corporations today. The data that underlies and explains environmental and social risks feels like it is not up to the challenge of quantitative financial modeling and making statements of financial risk based on shaky data is a good recipe for inviting litigation. Even for the most well documented risks such as climate adaptation, the data can leave enormous gaps in our ability to forecast financial impact. How frequent and of what duration are the expected climate events? Where in my supply chain am I likely to see the greatest disruption? What components or operations will prove to be most vulnerable and most critical in the face of disruption? How will critical stakeholders such as regulators react and respond in the face of severe events? How strained will our backstops such as insurance coverage become in the face of widespread events? These and other questions are important to calculating severity and likelihood of financial risks, but the available data may leave us with enormous sensitivities and error bars in our analysis. However, I have found in practice that the data challenge is frequently not as daunting as it appears. Many variables turn out to be less important to the model, thereby making the data challenge less relevant. In other cases, we are able to find new data sets that provide meaningful insights to critical variables. Even in those cases where the data are lacking and the question is critical, I find that knowing the range and likelihood of outcomes is more useful than an unsubstantiated narrative. Net present value Looking forward, companies must integrate sustainability risk and opportunity into financial modeling tools typically used in capital budgeting and investment analysis to make better strategic decisions. That means projecting the net present value (NPV) of sustainability-related projects, whether it's decarbonizing operations or installing renewable energy systems. NPV is a fundamental tool for companies to assess whether these projects will create or erode value over time, especially when compared to the cost of inaction—such as paying for carbon emissions or recovering from extreme weather damage. A key part of this is choosing the right discount rate—one that reflects our risk-adjusted cost of capital and the long-term calculations of climate investments. If I choose a rate that’s too high, I risk undervaluing the future benefits of resilience; too low, and I might overstate the returns. Embedding sustainability into financial models Practitioners must also recognize that environmental and social risks directly influence key financial metrics like free cash flow, leverage ratios, and cost of capital. For instance, rising water stress and deforestation policies can drive up input costs and squeeze margins in some circumstances and for some companies. Exposure to carbon pricing can increase earnings volatility, which affects beta and ultimately raises the cost of equity. Lenders and insurers are beginning to price environmental risk into debt and premiums, which means corporate cost of capital is increasingly tied to how well companies manage sustainability. If we want to integrate sustainability into our enterprise valuation and ensure that our initiatives are financially sound—not just aspirational—we have to model these dynamics accurately. Equally importantly, we must be cognizant of which financial metrics are most critical to financial health and whether these are the most sensitive factors to sustainability risks. For example, earlier ventures typically live and die by free cash flow whereas larger companies may be much more sensitive to leveraged ratios. Matching the sustainability risk and opportunity to the appropriate line item can be the difference between critical and meaningless insights. At the end of the day, I see financial modeling as the essential bridge connecting sustainability goals, enterprise valuation, and fiduciary duties. By quantifying the financial implications of our net-zero targets, carbon transition risks, nature-positive investments, labor disruptions, and resource constraints, we can move beyond abstract narratives and deliver forecasts that truly guide action. This shift allows wise capital allocation, sets credible decarbonization paths, and communicates sustainability risks and opportunities in ways that matter to investors. For sustainability to be a core part of business strategy—not just a footnote in a report—we must embed it in our financial models. In today’s world of tightening regulation and growing risk, doing the math isn’t optional. It’s essential.
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